Can Bitcoin Hit $100K? Here’s What Polymarket Users Are Predicting

Can Bitcoin reach the elusive $100K milestone? With real money, people are speculating on what they think is going to happen on Polymarket. In this breakdown, we take a look at what Polymarket is and how it works, and how accurate its forecasts have been. Find out if it’s biased, where it’s legal, and how does it make money, but also, what the market has to say about Bitcoin’s future.

Current Polymarket Odds & Bitcoin Price

Live Polymarket Probability Metrics

Bettors in Polymarket currently are 94% certain that Bitcoin will reach $100,000 this year, a virtually all‐in level of confidence. Now these live Bitcoin halving countdown style market sentiment shifts of when users buy and sell YES/NO shares are captured live with every trade, through the real time odds update.

Bitcoin’s Recent Price Performance

Bitcoin is trading at $93,260.56, up 0.76% in the last 24 hours, in a consolidation just below $100K. During the past week, BTC has climbed above 10% from its recent lows at $85K, fueled by ETF flows and halving hopes.

Polymarket User Sentiment Analysis

Betting Volume & Open Interest Trends

Bitcoin hitting $100K has already garnered over $5 million in total volume on Polymarket, demonstrating strong liquidity and user participation. However, open interest is still elevated, and plenty of capital is being placed in both YES and NO positions while traders hedge on the next move for BTC.

Bullish vs. Bearish User Positions

There is bullish tilt with around 61% of participants betting ‘YES’ that Bitcoin will reach $110K in 2025 while 39% are against the grain going with ‘NO.’ This sentiment divergence shows that Polymarket can measure real time, crowd expectation and risk appetite.

Impact of News Events on Polymarket Sentiment

Major headlines—like the recent ETF rollout and macroeconomic data—can swing Polymarket odds by up to 15% within hours. Information about shifts in sentiment around these events provides market psychology and the effect of breaking news on the forecasting of price.

How Polymarket Works

What Is Polymarket?

Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market built on Polygon, allowing users to trade event‐based contracts in USDC. Participants buy YES/NO shares that represent the likelihood of outcomes, which are automatically settled when the events actualize as per a reliable data oracle.

Liquidity & Automated Market Makers on Polymarket

Polymarket uses automated market makers (AMMs) with bonding curves to price assets and provide continuous liquidity. Also, the traders benefit from immediate price quotes, without waiting for counterparties while the liquidity providers earn part of the trading fees.

Accuracy & Bias in Prediction Markets

How Accurate and Unbiased Are Polymarket’s Predictions?

According to the research by Dune analitics, Polymarket reaches 90% accuracy one month before events and 94% four hours before. While this is positive, concerns about whether is Polymarket accurate and the possibility of market manipulation by larger traders continues, prompting a comparison of forecasts across platforms.

Polymarket’s Business Model

How Does Polymarket Make Money?

Polymarket also looks at revenue from API subscriptions for institutional clients as well as revenue from sponsored markets. Additional sources of future income could include partnerships with research firms and data providers to add premium analytics.

Fee Structure & Revenue Streams

Beyond transaction fees, Polymarket explores revenue from API subscriptions for institutional clients and sponsored markets. Partnerships with research firms and data providers may add premium analytics as future income streams.

Legality & Regulatory Landscape

Where Is Polymarket Legal Globally?

Polymarket is open for all other countries, where each area’s gambling and securities laws differ. To stay outside the US CFTC’s jurisdiction, it operates offshore and accepts users from Europe, Asia, and Latin America.

Polymarket’s Status in U.S. States

In 2022, Polymarket has refused to enable users based in New York and Washington due to strict state regulations. The platform is still available in other US states with disclaimers to sail through evolving federal guidelines.

Factors That Could Push Bitcoin to $100K

Technical Analysis: Key Resistance & Support

Fibonacci retracements provide key resistance for Bitcoin at $100k that bolsters by the support for $87.5k based on the 200‐day moving average. The upside could be triggered by a break above resistance and the act of rallying will be rapid and mirror post‐halving rallies in the past.

Macroeconomic & Halving Drivers

Historically, the Bitcoin halving in April 2024 halve new supply and induce big price runs. Each of these factors combined with an eternity of inflation concerns and exploding ETF adoption is an extremely bullish narrative as will Bitcoin hit 100k Polymarket bets.

Expert Commentary & Comparative Predictions

Polymarket vs. Kalshi Odds Comparison

Polymarket’s 94% odds for BTC $100K in 2024 is higher than Kalshi’s 80% average and shows deeper liquidity and a larger user base. Spreads on Kalshi markets tend to trade tighter, which could indicate less conservative risk taking.

Frequently Asked Questions

What Is Polymarket and How Does It Operate?

Polymarket is a decentralized prediction platform on Polygon, letting users buy/sell event shares in USDC, with smart contracts ensuring trustless settlement.

How Accurate Are Polymarket’s Predictions?

Polymarket achieves around 90–94% accuracy hours before events, according to CoinDesk research, but accuracy can vary by market type.

How Does Polymarket Generate Revenue?

Revenue comes from a 1.5% fee on trades, split between liquidity providers and Polymarket’s treasury for ongoing development.

In Which Countries or States Is Polymarket Legal?

Polymarket is legally accessible in most regions except certain US states like New York and Washington, due to state-specific securities and gambling laws.

Will Bitcoin Hit $100K According to Polymarket?

As of early 2025, Polymarket odds stand at 94% for BTC to hit $100K by year-end, reflecting widespread bettor confidence in a new all-time high.